Oil slips 0.4% on dim OPEC demand forecast after early jump on Gulf of Mexico storm

After 40 past bullish weather events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.6% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -3.7% to +5.3%), and +6.1% over 20.

• Sep 15, 2020Oil jumps nearly 3% as Gulf Coast storm forces output cuts+5.5%
• Sep 12, 2024Oil rises 2% as storm batters US Gulf of Mexico production+5.3%
• Nov 5, 2024Oil prices edge up on Gulf of Mexico storm ahead of US election results-2.7%
• Oct 27, 2020Oil jumps more than 2% on U.S. Gulf shutdowns-4.6%
• Oct 10, 2018Hurricane knocks out 42 percent of U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil output-4.0%

After 37 past weather events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +2.2% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -3.5% to +5.1%), and +4.9% over 20.

• Sep 13, 2024Oil eases on resuming US output after storm, rising rig count | Reuters+3.5%
• Jun 22, 2023Analyst Insight: Rapeseed market influences – where next for soyabeans? | AHDB-4.1%

After 39 past bullish weather events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +2.4% over 5 sessions (59% higher; middle half -4.5% to +6.1%), and +8.9% over 20.

• Jan 26, 2026ULSD Rises Amid Winter Storm, Oil Slips on Output Returns+9.4%
• Aug 30, 2017Crude slips, gasoline jumps as storm shuts a fifth of US fuel output+5.7%
• Dec 30, 2024Diesel benchmark up slightly; futures market soars on forecast of extreme cold - FreightWaves+5.6%
• Aug 23, 2020Oil Gains as U.S. Gulf Output and Refineries Halted Before Storm - Bloomberg+0.4%
• Dec 30, 2024Oil rises on diesel demand boost in sparse holiday trade | Reuters+5.6%