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Weather uncertainty in Brazil’s growing regions has limited soybean price declines during the intensification of 2026/27 planting. Dry spells in the South, excess moisture in the Southeast and irregular rainfall in the Center-West and Matopiba are raising crop concerns, while weaker demand for soybean meal and oil and rising global supply are weighing on the market.
Potential weather-related production risks provide a floor under soybean prices, but weak derivative demand and abundant global supply remain bearish for soybeans and processing products.
agrolink.com.brAline MerladeteNov 9, 2026After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 118 past bearish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -3.2% to +0.4%), and -1.6% over 20.
After 49 past bearish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -3.2% to +1.0%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
