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July soybean meal closed up $6.80 at $432.90 in the week ended May 12, 2023, despite July soybeans hitting their lowest close since August 2022 and July soybean oil falling below 50 cents. Meal prices held up on Argentina's drought, as the Rosario exchange cut its Argentine soybean crop estimate to 21.5 mmt, the smallest in 23 years.
Argentina's drought-reduced crush supply supports meal prices even as soybeans and oil weaken, so feed buyers face firmer meal costs despite the broader grain selloff.
dtnpf.comTodd HultmanMay 15, 2023After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 49 past bearish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -3.2% to +1.0%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
July soybean oil fell below 50 cents in the week ended May 12 as soybeans hit their lowest close since August 2022, confirming the weakness in the move window.
July soybeans hit their lowest close since August 2022 in the week to May 12 despite meal support from Argentina's drought.
