Wheat Falls Ahead of Black Sea Talks, While Corn and Soybeans Rise Before USDA Estimates

After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Oct 1, 2026US Harvest Progress Caps Corn Gains as Black Sea Talks Pressure Wheat-2.9%
• Jul 27, 2026Soybeans and corn fall more than 2% as oil drops, wheat also down | ZAWYA-2.4%
• Jun 16, 2026Corn, Wheat And Soy All See Prices Drop On Prospect Of US-Iran Deal | ESM Magazine-0.9%
• Oct 23, 2026Wheat prices fall to 14-week low on Black Sea hopes | Peepals-0.6%
• Jul 14, 2022Wheat, soybeans fall on expectations of progress in Ukraine shipping talks - Supply Chain Council of European Union | Scceu.org+8.4%

After 72 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.5%), and -1.0% over 20.

• Jul 15, 2026Wheat Skyrockets as Black Sea Exports Threatened, Pulling up Corn and Soybeans - AgWeb+1.0%
• Jul 20, 2026Wheat Climbs on Black Sea Risk, Soybeans Firm as China Returns+3.6%
• Mar 21, 2022Wheat rebounds on Black Sea supply worries; corn, soybeans rise 1% - Markets - Business Recorder+2.5%
• Aug 1, 2026Wheat Soars, Pulling up Corn and Soybeans: Outside Markets See Fed Fallout-1.3%
• Jul 16, 2026Wheat Soars as Black Sea Conflict Reshapes the Grain Markets | Agriculture of America+2.6%

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Jul 15, 2026Wheat Skyrockets as Black Sea Exports Threatened, Pulling up Corn and Soybeans - AgWeb+3.2%
• Mar 21, 2022Wheat rebounds on Black Sea supply worries; corn, soybeans rise 1% - Markets - Business Recorder+1.5%
• Aug 1, 2026Wheat Soars, Pulling up Corn and Soybeans: Outside Markets See Fed Fallout-0.6%
• Dec 2, 2025U.S. grains: Corn, wheat futures climb on Black Sea tensions - Grainews+0.5%
• Oct 31, 2022Wheat up 6% after Russia quits Black Sea pact; corn, soy firm | Reuters-2.2%