
Analysts at Energy Aspects expect China’s diesel exports in November to be about 580,000 tonnes, 400,000 tonnes below their previous estimate, as falling domestic inventories limit export availability amid a global diesel crunch. The briefing also reports a steep weekly decline in crude prices and notes that Indian state oil company ONGC is negotiating to take over operations at two Venezuelan oil-and-gas projects.
Reduced Chinese diesel exports tighten available seaborne fuel supply and could support diesel prices and freight costs, raising transport expenses for feed buyers. The lower crude-price move may partly offset that pressure on fuel costs.
After 26 past bullish trade events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -1.9% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -5.6% to +1.6%), and -4.8% over 20.
After 80 past bearish trade events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.2% over 5 sessions (30% higher; middle half -6.9% to +0.8%), and -1.5% over 20.
After 56 past bearish trade events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -5.6% over 5 sessions (20% higher; middle half -9.0% to -1.7%), and -4.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.