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California refiners are prioritizing export-grade EPA diesel over CARB diesel since July 2019 to capture stronger margins. Waterborne diesel exports from the US West Coast averaged 94,100 b/d, mostly to Latin America, and demand is expected to grow in 2020.
Stronger export pull from Latin America tightens West Coast diesel availability, supporting diesel prices. The effect on feed input costs is modest.
After 26 past bullish trade events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -1.9% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -5.6% to +1.6%), and -4.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.