At the IRPC 2017 conference in New Delhi, a Kuwait Petroleum International engineer forecast that China and India will drive more than 45% of global oil product demand growth. He also said 5.4 million barrels per day of refining capacity will close by end-2017, including 2.2 million in Europe.
He expects Europe to import more diesel from the Middle East, North America and Russia.
European diesel import needs and refinery closures could tighten distillate balances and support diesel cargo premiums. The shift in trade flows matters for freight and fuel costs in feed logistics.
After 26 past bullish trade events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -1.9% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -5.6% to +1.6%), and -4.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.