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US diesel loadings bound for Europe rose to 517,000 b/d in July, the highest since July 2018, according to S&P Global ship tracking. Europe's reliance on US supply has grown since Russian sanctions, and Saudi exports to Europe fell sharply.
Strong export pull draws US distillate barrels abroad, which can tighten domestic diesel supply and support prices. Ocean freight rates easing supports the trade arbitrage.
After 26 past bullish trade events, DIESEL moved a median -1.9% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -5.6% to +1.6%), and -4.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.