Record oil exports could drive U.S. diesel and gas supply shortages just as summer travel starts

After 26 past bullish trade events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -1.9% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -5.6% to +1.6%), and -4.8% over 20.

• Mar 28, 2022US exports more diesel as global shortage fuels competition-18.2%
• Jul 24, 2024US diesel exports to Europe hit record high despite lackluster demand-3.1%
• May 6, 2022U.S. fuel prices surge faster than crude as exports tighten market+2.0%
• Jun 15, 2022Latin America adjusts to third wave of import diesel prices reaching record levels | World Ports Organization-0.3%
• Dec 30, 2019Viewpoint: California to maximize EPA diesel, exports | Latest Market News-1.0%

After 36 past bullish trade events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.6% over 5 sessions (69% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.5%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Jun 18, 2019Oil rallies as progress toward a trade deal eases demand worries - MarketWatch+11.3%
• Nov 5, 2019Oil steadies after gains driven by trade optimism+0.8%
• May 9, 2025Week in Review: Fuel Prices Climb on Trade Talks and US Supply Strains - Mansfield Energy+2.9%
• Jul 31, 2025Asia steps up US WTI oil imports as Middle East prices rise, sources say | MarketScreener-8.0%
• Dec 3, 2018Oil up 4 pct on trade truce, expected supply cuts+3.7%