Oil up 4 pct on trade truce, expected supply cuts

After 36 past bullish trade events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.6% over 5 sessions (69% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.5%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Jan 4, 2019Oil prices rise on US-China trade talks and OPEC cuts+11.7%
• Jan 9, 2019Oil rises more than 2 pct on U.S.-China trade talk hope+4.5%
• May 9, 2025Week in Review: Fuel Prices Climb on Trade Talks and US Supply Strains - Mansfield Energy+2.9%
• May 7, 2026Record oil exports could drive U.S. diesel and gas supply shortages just as summer travel starts - MarketWatch+6.0%
• Nov 7, 2023China's imports unexpectedly grow-3.2%

After 16 past bullish trade events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (81% higher; middle half +0.5% to +4.8%), and +5.9% over 20.

• Jan 4, 2019Oil prices rise on US-China trade talks and OPEC cuts+11.9%
• Jan 9, 2019Oil rises more than 2 pct on U.S.-China trade talk hope+3.2%
• May 9, 2025Week in Review: Fuel Prices Climb on Trade Talks and US Supply Strains - Mansfield Energy+3.1%
• Sep 19, 2023Recent surge in WTI price curbs US oil flows to Europe, Asia | Reuters-1.6%
• Nov 5, 2019Oil steadies after gains driven by trade optimism+0.1%