
U.S. crude settled up 1.9% at $47.96 after China agreed to hold trade talks with the United States, easing fears of a global slowdown. Gains were capped by a sharp build in U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories.
Progress in U.S.-China trade talks improves the outlook for demand and supports crude prices. Large product inventory builds limit the rise and signal near-term softness in fuel demand.
After 36 past bullish trade events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.6% over 5 sessions (69% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.5%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 16 past bullish trade events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (81% higher; middle half +0.5% to +4.8%), and +5.9% over 20.
After 28 past bearish trade events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -5.0% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
China's agreement to hold trade talks eased global slowdown fears and lifted crude, partly offset by US product inventory builds.