Diesel margins fell sharply in Europe, the US, and Singapore as traders weighed a possible Chinese fuel export quota of 1.5 million tons. Europe's ICE gasoil crack dropped to its lowest in over a month but remains roughly triple its five-year seasonal average.
Potential Chinese diesel exports would add supply to global markets and weigh on prices in other regions. Diesel is shipped by tanker, so a surplus in one region pressures prices elsewhere.
After 28 past bearish trade events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -5.0% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.