
Asian and Middle Eastern refiners are ramping up diesel exports to Europe in October. Prompt diesel prices in Europe have surged versus future months because of worker strikes at French refineries since September.
Higher Asian and Middle Eastern supply into Europe helps offset the French refinery shortfall and can cap diesel price spikes. Long-haul cargo economics are affected by the price spread between prompt and future months.
After 28 past bearish trade events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -5.0% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.