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Oil and diesel prices fell after President Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff and reciprocal tariffs of 11-50% on nearly 60 trading partners. Canada also eliminated its carbon tax on April 1, which cut diesel prices there, while OPEC+ kept plans to gradually raise output.
Trade war fears and the Canadian tax removal both point to lower diesel demand and cost pressure. Expected OPEC+ supply increases add further downside to energy prices.
breakthroughfuel.comMatt MuensterApr 4, 2025After 80 past bearish trade events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.2% over 5 sessions (30% higher; middle half -6.9% to +0.8%), and -1.5% over 20.
After 56 past bearish trade events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -5.6% over 5 sessions (20% higher; middle half -9.0% to -1.7%), and -4.5% over 20.
After 28 past bearish trade events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -5.0% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The 10% baseline tariff and reciprocal tariffs, along with OPEC+ planning to keep raising output, pushed oil and diesel prices lower.
