
Brent crude fell about 7% on August 1, 2019, its steepest drop in more than three years, after President Trump announced new tariffs on Chinese imports. The decline erased a rally built on falling U.S. crude inventories.
Concerns over the U.S.-China trade dispute weighed on expectations for global oil demand.
Tariff escalation between the two largest economies raises fears of slower growth and lower oil demand, pushing crude prices down. Lower energy prices also reduce input costs for biofuels and ethanol, and China's weaker ag purchases can pressure soybean prices.
After 56 past bearish trade events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -5.6% over 5 sessions (20% higher; middle half -9.0% to -1.7%), and -4.5% over 20.
After 80 past bearish trade events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.2% over 5 sessions (30% higher; middle half -6.9% to +0.8%), and -1.5% over 20.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Brent fell about 7% on Aug 1 after Trump announced new China tariffs, the largest single driver of the 5-day decline via global oil demand fears.