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US gasoline prices are reported up 42% and diesel up 52% since late 2025 as the US-Israel war with Iran caused global fuel shortages. Scrutiny is growing over booming US energy exports amid domestic price increases.
Higher US diesel costs raise farm and feed freight costs, and policy pressure over export flows could affect crude and product price spreads.
After 26 past bullish trade events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -1.9% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -5.6% to +1.6%), and -4.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.