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Coface’s latest risk review says renewed conflict involving Iran and the US, as well as the Russia-Ukraine war, has strained supply chains and pushed up commodity prices. It reports that oil and natural gas prices have risen sharply, while wheat is up 40% year over year amid Black Sea port strikes and European heatwaves; inflation concerns have also prompted central-bank rate increases.
Disrupted energy and grain flows, alongside heat damage, tighten supply and support prices, with wheat specifically facing upward pressure. Higher energy and financing costs can also raise feed-production and transport expenses.
businessexplainer.co.zaNov 8, 2026After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
