
Chicago soybean oil futures rose 1.8% on Wednesday to a three-week high, extending gains for a fifth consecutive session as renewed US-Iran hostilities lifted crude oil prices. Soybean oil was up 1.4% to 68.18 cents per pound, while corn fell 0.4%; soybeans and wheat were little changed.
Higher crude prices can make biofuels more attractive and strengthen demand expectations for soybean oil. The geopolitical risk therefore supported soybean oil, while the article reported a small decline in corn.
After 110 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybean Oil moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.6%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 87 past bearish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.