Loading…
Capital Economics said a strong El Niño is likely to have only a modest effect on emerging-market growth, but could increase inflation and worsen trade balances, with the Philippines most exposed. Its analysis estimates a 0.05–0.30 percentage-point drag on GDP growth; Philippine inflation was 7.8% year on year in October, while the peso had fallen past 64 per dollar and the central bank had raised rates by 125 basis points since April.
Weather-related food supply disruptions could raise import needs and food prices, worsening the Philippines’ trade balance and potentially prompting further rate hikes. The risk is supportive of prices for affected food commodities, though the article does not specify a particular commodity.
intellinews.comBen Aris in BerlinNov 5, 2026After 2,467 past weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 1,964 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,773 past weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 361 past weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
