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An Indian Express explainer says NOAA announced a developing weak El Niño in February 2019, with a 55% chance of persisting until spring. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology also reported El Niño development.
The article explains that El Niño typically suppresses Indian monsoon rainfall, while La Niña tends to help it.
A weak El Niño raises the risk of a below-normal Indian monsoon, which could cut kharif rice and pulse output and affect Indian export policy. Any actual monsoon shortfall would be needed before prices react.
indianexpress.comAmitabh SinhaFeb 28, 2019After 2,467 past weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 1,964 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,773 past weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 361 past weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
