◂ Event Timeline

Apr 23, 2021WEATHERGlobal

Predicting the duration of El Niño and La Niña events with multiyear lead time

A US CLIVAR study shows that the duration of individual ENSO events from 1954 to 2015 can be predicted up to two years ahead using the Community Earth System Model. About 30% of El Niño and 50% of La Niña events persist for two to three years, yet current operational forecasts cover only about 12 months.

WHY IT MATTERS

Longer-lead ENSO forecasts could help traders and feed buyers anticipate multi-year weather risk to crops. The research itself does not move current prices.

AFFECTSCorn Soybeans Wheat (SRW)Palm Oil

SOURCE
usclivar.orgApr 23, 2021

Price reaction & history

Cornno directional readSO FAR1d +0.5%5d +10.5%20d +8.1%

After 2,467 past weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.

Aug 19, 2025El Niño and La Niña affect grain production in Goiás and the Federal District - Cultivar Magazine+1.2%
Oct 23, 2020The Rise of El Niño and La Niña | NOAA Climate.gov+0.8%
Jun 19, 2025Five tips for making the most of El Niño and La Niña forecasts | CRUCIAL-3.3%
Oct 20, 2017La Niña Watch issued by the Climate Prediction Center+0.2%
Aug 30, 2022WMO predicts first “triple-dip” La Niña of the century-3.3%

Soybeansno directional readSO FAR1d +0.4%5d +0.6%20d 0.0%

After 1,964 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.

Aug 19, 2025El Niño and La Niña affect grain production in Goiás and the Federal District - Cultivar Magazine+0.5%
Oct 23, 2020The Rise of El Niño and La Niña | NOAA Climate.gov-2.0%
Jun 19, 2025Five tips for making the most of El Niño and La Niña forecasts | CRUCIAL-4.8%
Oct 20, 2017La Niña Watch issued by the Climate Prediction Center-1.5%
Aug 30, 2022WMO predicts first “triple-dip” La Niña of the century-2.9%

Wheat (SRW)no directional readSO FAR1d 0.0%5d +3.2%20d -0.2%

After 1,773 past weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.

Oct 23, 2020The Rise of El Niño and La Niña | NOAA Climate.gov-0.1%
Jun 19, 2025Five tips for making the most of El Niño and La Niña forecasts | CRUCIAL-3.0%
Oct 20, 2017La Niña Watch issued by the Climate Prediction Center-0.0%
Aug 30, 2022WMO predicts first “triple-dip” La Niña of the century-2.3%
Jun 1, 2021Climate.gov tweet chat: Talk El Niño and La Niña with the ENSO bloggers | NOAA Climate.gov+1.9%

Palm Oilno directional readSO FAR1d -0.4%5d -0.2%20d +10.0%

After 361 past weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

Oct 23, 2020The Rise of El Niño and La Niña | NOAA Climate.gov+0.7%
Jun 19, 2025Five tips for making the most of El Niño and La Niña forecasts | CRUCIAL-0.5%
Oct 20, 2017La Niña Watch issued by the Climate Prediction Center+1.0%
Jun 1, 2021Climate.gov tweet chat: Talk El Niño and La Niña with the ENSO bloggers | NOAA Climate.gov-2.0%
Nov 17, 2017Multi-year La Niña presents opportunity to predict drought impacts out to 2 years-1.2%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Corn CORN · GP ▸

——— · ·

Soybeans SOY · GP ▸

——— · ·

Loading…