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Crude sunflower oil for January-March delivery fell about 3% on the week after a Russia, Ukraine and US meeting was confirmed for Abu Dhabi on 10-11 November. Ukraine and Russia's sunflower oil output and exports in July-September were sharply below year-earlier levels because of the Black Sea escalation.
Market hopes for Black Sea shipping safety pressured vegetable oil prices, but weak regional supply means prices could rebound if the talks fail to produce a lasting agreement. Palm and rapeseed oil also eased, adding to the bearish tone across the complex.
vespertool.comGehrman KosenkovNov 5, 2026After 28 past bearish geopolitics events, Soybean Oil moved a median -2.7% over 5 sessions (21% higher; middle half -8.3% to -0.7%), and -2.1% over 20.
After 12 past bearish geopolitics events, Palm Oil moved a median -4.5% over 5 sessions (17% higher; middle half -5.9% to -2.3%), and -6.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
