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Brent crude sank more than 20% on March 9 after Saudi Arabia cut its selling prices in a price war with Russia, with Brent falling to about US$35.47 per barrel. Singapore-based analyst Sathia Varqa said CPO-to-gasoil spreads of about US$140 make palm biodiesel blending unattractive without subsidies.
Lower diesel prices remove the economic incentive for palm biodiesel blending, cutting a source of palm oil demand and pressuring palm and soyoil prices.
themalaysianreserve.comZukriMar 10, 2020After 12 past bearish geopolitics events, Palm Oil moved a median -4.5% over 5 sessions (17% higher; middle half -5.9% to -2.3%), and -6.2% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 51 past bearish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -8.2% to +3.9%), and -2.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The crude crash left palm biodiesel blending unattractive without subsidies, cutting expected energy-linked demand for palm.
