Libya’s biggest oil field reopens, adding to OPEC’s challenges

After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.

• Mar 6, 2020Oil takes biggest daily dive in over a decade as Russia, OPEC split-36.6%
• May 3, 2026OPEC+ countries, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, to boost oil production | AP News-9.5%
• Feb 1, 2026OPEC+ agrees to keep oil output unchanged-3.1%
• Mar 9, 2020U.S. shale producers rush to cut spending, output as oil prices tank-27.3%
• Sep 21, 2018Oil pares gains after report OPEC, allies considering supply hike+3.5%

After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.

• Mar 6, 2020Oil takes biggest daily dive in over a decade as Russia, OPEC split-31.3%
• Feb 1, 2026OPEC+ agrees to keep oil output unchanged-1.6%
• Mar 9, 2020U.S. shale producers rush to cut spending, output as oil prices tank-23.0%
• Sep 21, 2018Oil pares gains after report OPEC, allies considering supply hike+1.9%
• Jun 2, 2022OPEC+ brings forward oil output rises as Biden's Saudi visit looms | Reuters+5.8%