
Malaysia's trade minister said the country would respond with 'might and tact' if the EU proceeds with palm oil curbs, and would withhold cooperation on trade talks. A significant share of Malaysian palm oil exported to the EU is used as biodiesel feedstock.
Potential EU restrictions on palm-based biodiesel threaten a major export outlet, which is bearish for palm oil if enacted, while the threatened retaliation adds trade uncertainty.
After 12 past bearish geopolitics events, Palm Oil moved a median -4.5% over 5 sessions (17% higher; middle half -5.9% to -2.3%), and -6.2% over 20.
After 28 past bearish geopolitics events, Soybean Oil moved a median -2.7% over 5 sessions (21% higher; middle half -8.3% to -0.7%), and -2.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.