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The European Parliament's proposal to stop recognising palm-based biofuel as renewable energy has raised the risk of a trade dispute with Malaysia and Indonesia. Indonesia's minister has warned of retaliation.
Possible retaliation and reduced EU biofuel demand for palm oil would weigh on palm prices and could divert trade flows.
After 12 past bearish geopolitics events, Palm Oil moved a median -4.5% over 5 sessions (17% higher; middle half -5.9% to -2.3%), and -6.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.