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The US dollar rose 9.2% in Brazil between October 23 and 30 after the presidential runoff. Soybean prices at Paranaguá rose only 4.3%, as a 2.7% fall in Chicago January futures and lower export premiums offset most of the currency gain.
Corn gained even less, constrained by supply and domestic market conditions.
Brazilian grain prices in reais depend on Chicago and on basis premiums as well as the exchange rate, so a weaker real does not fully lift export values. Traders are holding back stocks, which limits downside for Brazilian soybeans.
revistacultivar.com.brNov 4, 2026After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 50 past neutral macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.8% over 20.
After 78 past neutral macro events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
