Allendale commodity broker Greg McBride said El Niño could damage the US corn crop and reduce Brazil's projected record soybean crop. Analysts expect a bumper Brazilian crop, which could further weaken demand for US grain once China finishes its purchases of US soybeans.
Possible El Niño damage to Brazilian soybeans and US corn is a supply risk that could partly offset expected record Brazilian output and support prices, though the expected bumper crop keeps the overall outlook bearish for US grain demand.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.