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INTL FCStone analyst Arlan Suderman expects weather problems, near-record speculative short positions, and uncertainty over a China trade deal to create volatility in the grain market. He also warns that large soybean production could push prices lower later in the summer.
Large expected soybean supplies point to weaker soybean prices into summer, while weather risk and fund positioning add upside volatility to corn.
iowaagribusinessradionetwork.comStaff EditorMar 22, 2019After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
