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Asian crude imports have recovered to pre-war levels, but refined fuel imports remain about 10% below pre-war volumes. Diesel shortages persist due to damaged Middle Eastern refineries, Russian export disruptions from Ukrainian strikes, and reduced Hormuz product flows.
Analysts expect the crunch to extend well into 2027.
A prolonged diesel shortage keeps refining margins and freight costs high, raising the cost of moving feed ingredients globally. Persistent tightness supports diesel and crude prices.
oilprice.comTsvetana ParaskovaNov 4, 2026After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, DIESEL moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
