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Goldman Sachs says the diesel market is now the largest threat in oil markets, with global refining throughput down as much as 6.5 million bpd versus July 2025. Global diesel exports have fallen about 35% this month, and inventories are below seasonal averages.
A sharp drop in global diesel exports and low inventories tighten fuel supply and raise prices for transport, drying and freight. The outlook points to further tightening if supply is squeezed again.
oilprice.comTsvetana ParaskovaJul 30, 2026After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
