WTI and Brent futures were set for solid weekly gains as traders focused on U.S. sanctions against Iran. Estimates of lost Iranian supply ranged from 500,000 to 2 million barrels per day.
Saudi Arabia and Russia had announced output increases of about 1.4 million barrels per day, though a further 500,000 barrel increase was rejected.
Expected supply shortfalls from Iran sanctions support crude prices, which feed into energy and transport costs for feed producers.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.