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The IEA warns a severe diesel supply crunch could persist into next year. Diesel refining margins hit record highs near $95 per barrel in September after attacks on energy infrastructure tied to the Iran and Ukraine wars reduced refining capacity.
Tight distillate supply lifts diesel and freight costs, raising the cost of moving feed ingredients and grain across markets.
worldports.orgOct 29, 2026After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
