Diesel squeeze to last until 2027 as Iran war disrupts supply: IEA

After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Jun 17, 2025Diesel Prices Surge as Israel-Iran War Pressures Market - TT-4.0%
• Aug 19, 2026Diesel in California hits $7 as wars in Europe, Middle East strain supply-6.3%
• Mar 20, 2026Oil jumps to highest settlement since July 2022 as more Mideast supply disrupted | Reuters-1.8%
• Mar 8, 2026Oil prices surge 20% as expanding US-Israeli war with Iran cuts supplies from Mideast - CNA+10.4%
• Mar 9, 2026Instant View: Oil surges 20% as Iran war fuels supply fears | Reuters+10.4%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Apr 1, 2026How the Iran War Is Disrupting Global Oil and Gas Supply-12.2%
• Jun 17, 2025Diesel Prices Surge as Israel-Iran War Pressures Market - TT-1.7%
• Jan 7, 2020US, Iran tensions: Oil traders fear supply disruptions in Middle East-7.8%
• Mar 1, 2026Oil and gas prices surge as Iran war disrupts Middle Eastern output | Reuters+31.0%
• Aug 31, 2026Oil prices rise as latest US-Iran fighting resurrects Middle East supply disruption risks - The Business Times+10.1%