Archer Daniels Midland reported third-quarter profit of $821 million, or $1.70 a share, versus $108 million a year earlier, and adjusted EPS of $1.77 beat estimates. The company raised its full-year adjusted EPS outlook to $5.50-$5.80 and trimmed its capex guidance, citing new US crop-based biofuel blending quotas.
Strong crushing and ethanol margins under expanded US biofuel blending mandates signal robust crush demand for soybeans and oil, supporting soybean oil and meal values, though the earnings report itself is company-specific.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 206 past neutral policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
After 554 past neutral policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.