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The Union of Concerned Scientists argues that EPA's proposed 2026-2027 RFS volumes exceed domestic feedstock availability, so mandates can only be met with imports and shifting vegetable oil out of food markets. It says more than 70 percent of biodiesel consumption growth from 2022 to 2024 came from imported fuels or feedstocks.
If mandates require imported or food-diverted vegetable oils, vegetable oil prices and fuel costs would be pushed higher, with knock-on effects for food oil and feed supplies.
blog.ucs.orgJeremy Martin Director of Fuels PolicyAug 8, 2025After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 548 past bullish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 187 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -4.0% to +3.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
