
EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt issued a proposed rule setting 2019 minimum renewable fuel volumes and the 2020 biomass-based diesel standard, on schedule for the congressional deadline. Conventional volumes stay at 15 billion gallons, advanced biofuel rises nearly 600 million gallons, and biomass-based diesel rises 330 million gallons for 2020.
The biomass-based diesel increase supports soybean oil demand from biodiesel, while the flat conventional target keeps corn ethanol demand steady, so the net price effect on feedstocks is moderately supportive.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 439 past neutral policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.