The EPA is expected to release its proposed 2018 renewable fuel use requirements within days, according to Reuters. Traders expect no change to conventional targets and a modest increase in advanced biofuel volumes, and RIN prices rose by as much as 4 cents in anticipation.
The advanced biofuel and biomass-based diesel volumes set the demand for soybean oil feedstock used in biodiesel. A modest increase above expectations would support soybean oil prices, while a weaker figure would pressure them.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.