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A Columbia University analysis examines OPEC+'s August decision to raise September output by 100,000 barrels per day. The group referenced a lack of spare capacity for the first time in its history.
The analysis argues the increase is too small to control prices if demand keeps growing.
Lack of spare capacity suggests supply will stay constrained, supporting crude and energy-linked costs for feed producers. The analysis is a follow-up to the decision rather than a new supply event.
energypolicy.columbia.eduColumbia, CGEPAug 18, 2022After 175 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.6% to +3.0%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 187 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -4.0% to +3.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
