Analysis-From Grains to Chicken and Milk, India Faces Prolonged Food Inflation

After 20 past bullish macro events, MILK moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -0.1% to +2.4%), and +2.4% over 20.

• Jul 21, 2026Protein inflation surges as costlier fodder pushes up milk, chicken prices - The Economic Times+0.1%
• Jan 18, 2023UK inflation edges down to 10.5% in December, food prices surge-0.3%
• Jun 28, 2016IFA Says Brexit Concerns Must Not Influence June and Further Milk Price Decisions - Irish Farmers' Association+13.2%
• Jan 16, 2019Dairy and the cost of production in tough times | UMN Extension-0.5%
• Nov 19, 2021US Dairy Prices Jump As Milk Production Growth Slows - EDairy News English+0.6%

After 57 past bullish macro events, WHEAT moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.7%), and -0.7% over 20.

• Apr 30, 2021Inflation-tolerant Fed will boost commodity prices | Reuters-5.5%
• Jun 5, 2018Time to glean profits from grains | DK | WisdomTree Europe-0.3%
• Dec 27, 2019Fluctuations in sterling affecting grain prices | The Scottish Farmer+0.2%
• Dec 3, 2020Grains and the Dollar: An Imperfect but Negative Relationship+9.8%
• Mar 4, 2026FAO Food Price Index rises in March as Near East conflict raises energy costs+1.0%

After 151 past bullish macro events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.

• Jul 21, 2026Protein inflation surges as costlier fodder pushes up milk, chicken prices - The Economic Times-0.2%
• Jan 3, 2023How Consumers and Businesses are Reacting to Food Price Inflation - Euromonitor.com-2.2%
• Jul 7, 2021What does inflation mean for milk prices? - Dairy Producer+2.5%
• Sep 25, 2026What’s behind the latest surge in grain and oilseed prices?-0.3%
• May 1, 2021Why prices of commodities, from metals to food, are soaring+2.8%

After 43 past macro events, RICE moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -2.0% to +2.3%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Jan 5, 2023Government sees inflation's peak as it misses target for second straight year | Philstar.com-0.2%
• Aug 9, 2017India rice shipments slow as stronger rupee lifts export prices | India rice shipments slow as stronger rupee lifts export prices+0.8%
• Mar 22, 2019Strong rupee pushes rice prices to seven-month high, dampening exports | Commodity - Food & Edible Oils - Business Standard-1.6%
• Jun 1, 2020Rice: The Coronavirus-Proof Grain?+19.5%
• Jun 23, 2022Wild 2022 in grain markets sparks 2008 comparisons | Reuters+0.8%