
US dairy prices have risen double digits this year, driven by domestic demand recovery from food service reopening and higher exports, with nonfat dry milk exports up 12% and cheese exports up 9%. The US milk cow herd fell to 9.4 million head in September, down 85,000 from the May peak, and western drought has raised feed costs for corn and hay.
A shrinking herd and drought-driven feed cost increases tighten milk supply, supporting dairy prices while raising corn and hay demand concerns for feed buyers.
After 20 past bullish macro events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -0.1% to +2.4%), and +2.4% over 20.
After 151 past bullish macro events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.