
DTN reports that COVID-19 has pressured most US farm commodities so far in 2020, with corn, soybeans, cattle, hogs and milk all down sharply by mid-April. Rough rice prices were up about 9% and KC wheat roughly flat over the first months of the year.
The IMF projected a 3% global GDP contraction in 2020 and a 5.9% US decline.
Rice and wheat demand depends mainly on population growth, so it holds up better than feed-linked demand during an economic downturn. This supports relative rice pricing while feed demand weakens.
After 43 past macro events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -2.0% to +2.3%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.