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The IEA reports global diesel supply in Q3 fell 1.7 million bpd year-on-year, with combined net diesel exports from the Middle East and Russia down more than 60%. Inventories have dropped sharply and crack spreads have reached historic highs.
The IEA warns tight diesel conditions could last until the second half of 2027.
A structural diesel shortage and record crack spreads raise refining and transport costs, supporting energy and freight prices. The outlook suggests limited near-term relief for fuel-linked costs in feed supply chains.
sunsirs.comNov 2, 2026After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
