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Brent crude fell toward $111 per barrel on Monday, moving away from four-year highs. Qatari and Iranian officials continued talks to end the US-Israel war on Iran, and Trump said the US would refrain from fresh attacks before the midterm elections.
Easing supply-risk premium on crude lowers diesel and energy costs for feed mills and transport, and reduces pressure on fertilizer and biofuel-linked feedstocks, though renewed strikes could reverse the move quickly.
tradingeconomics.comNov 1, 2026After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 51 past bearish geopolitics events, DIESEL moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -8.2% to +3.9%), and -2.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
