Brent crude fell below $115 and WTI near $101 as hopes of US-Iran peace talks offset concerns about growing Middle East conflict. Houthi attacks and possible further US military action were cited as limiting losses.
Peace-talk hopes ease the geopolitical risk premium in crude, which could moderate diesel and freight costs if sustained.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.