The US Commerce Department will issue a decision in November to raise anti-subsidy duties on biodiesel imports. Indonesian and Argentine producers face rates ranging from about 41% to 68%, and the industry expects exports to the US to stop.
Higher US biodiesel duties cut off a key export outlet for Indonesian palm oil, which is bearish for palm oil demand and prices.
After 158 past bearish trade events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.8%), and -1.4% over 20.
After 224 past bullish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.