Indonesia's government said it will challenge the US Commerce Department's preliminary antidumping duty of 50.71% on its palm oil-based biodiesel. The US also set duties of 54.36% to 70.05% on Argentine biodiesel, which is typically soy-based.
Argentina supplies about two-thirds of US biodiesel imports.
Preliminary duties this high would sharply reduce Indonesian and Argentine biodiesel shipments to the US, supporting US soybean oil demand. The challenge may not change the outcome quickly.
After 224 past bullish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 158 past bearish trade events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.8%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.