The US International Trade Commission determined on 21 December that Argentine and Indonesian biodiesel imports had materially damaged the US biodiesel industry, effectively shutting those imports out. Canadian canola futures rose to a two-month high as demand for Canadian canola increased, and crush margins widened.
Duties on Argentine and Indonesian biodiesel shift demand toward Canadian canola and soybean oil, supporting canola prices and crush margins. Higher canola crush also increases canola meal supply, which weighs on meal prices.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 224 past bullish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 133 past bullish trade events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (64% higher; middle half -0.8% to +2.3%), and +1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.