European FAME 0 biodiesel moved into backwardation of about $45/ton as roughly half a million tons of biodiesel from Indonesia, Malaysia and Argentina are expected to arrive between April and July. A possible anti-dumping investigation into soy-based biodiesel is also prompting buyers to consider palm-based material.
Heavy import arrivals add supply to the European biodiesel market while buyers shift toward palm-based product, supporting palm oil demand and pressuring soybean oil exports to Europe.
After 133 past bullish trade events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (64% higher; middle half -0.8% to +2.3%), and +1.7% over 20.
After 152 past bearish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.