The US International Trade Commission determined that biodiesel from Argentina and Indonesia may be dumped on the US market, and soy oil futures strengthened in response. Rabobank expects a tariff similar to the EU's 2013 duties, potentially covering more than 4 billion pounds of soyoil.
A likely tariff on competing biodiesel imports would support US soyoil demand and prices, and could further tighten vegetable oil supplies available to feed and industrial buyers.
After 224 past bullish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 158 past bearish trade events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.8%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.